Three Signals Furniture Leaders Should Watch in 2026

Originally published December 29, 2025. This version was rebuilt from Visa, NAR and Conference Board releases for the FIN archive, and the facts are as of that date.

As 2025 closed, two pieces of data framed the year ahead. Shoppers spent more over the holidays but not much more on furniture, and home contracts finally picked up.

The short version

• Holiday retail spending grew, and stores still took most of it.
• Furniture and home furnishings barely grew over the holidays.
• Pending home sales rose sharply in November, led by the West.

Holiday spending grew, furniture lagged

Visa's holiday analysis found US retail spending up 4.2% from a year earlier, with 73% of it in physical stores. Furniture and home furnishings sales rose just 0.8%.

Shoppers were spending, but on gifts and clothes more than on the home. A strong showroom still mattered, since most holiday dollars went through a store.

Home contracts pick up

NAR's pending home sales index rose 3.3% in November and 2.6% from a year earlier, reaching its highest level in nearly three years. Every region gained, and the West led with 9.2%. NAR credited lower mortgage rates, wages growing faster than prices and more listings.

Pending sales are contracts, not closings, so the furniture effect would arrive months later as buyers moved in.

Confidence slips again

The Conference Board said on December 23 that its Consumer Confidence Index fell 3.8 points to 89.1, a fifth straight monthly decline. The Expectations Index held at 70.7, under the recession-warning level of 80 for the 11th month in a row.

The board said consumers appeared more cautious about plans for buying big-ticket items over the next six months, with more saying no. That was the furniture risk heading into January, when holiday spending fades and big purchases depend on how secure people feel.

The test for 2026

The signals to watch going into 2026 were whether the contract gains turned into closings, and whether furniture could claim more of a retail market that was still growing.

Going into 2026

The industry ended 2025 adapting rather than accelerating. Housing was offering the first real reason for optimism in a while.

Related on FIN

• Move-In Furniture Tickets Are Drying Up
• Furniture Shoppers Are Holding Back

Sources

• Visa, Visa Analysis. U.S. Holiday Spending Rose 4.2%
• National Association of Realtors, Pending Home Sales Surge to Nearly 3-Year High
• The Conference Board, US consumer confidence fell again in December (Dec. 23, 2025)