Move-In Furniture Tickets Are Drying Up

Move-In Furniture Tickets Are Drying Up.

Pending home sales fell to their lowest level since 2014 in September, and more deals fell apart. Shoppers also say it's a bad time to buy big-ticket items.

Today's big number is 14.5%. That's the share of September home contracts that fell through, per Redfin, the highest since the pandemic began. Pending sales also dropped to their lowest level since spring 2014. Fewer signed deals means fewer move-in tickets heading into the holidays. Here's what you need to know.

In today's briefing:

Housing: pending home sales fell 4% in September to their lowest level since 2014, and 14.5% of deals fell through
Shoppers: buying conditions for big-ticket items "plummeted" in October
Freight: West Coast container rates eased a little

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Housing

Fewer homes went under contract in September, and more deals fell apart.

Redfin says U.S. pending home sales fell 4% from August on a seasonally adjusted basis, the biggest monthly drop in more than 3 years. That leaves pending sales at their lowest level since spring 2014, not counting the April 2020 pandemic freeze. Pending sales were down from a year earlier in all 50 of the largest metros, the first time that's happened in 3 years. And 14.5% of homes that went under contract in September fell through, the highest share since the pandemic began.

These are Redfin's own brokerage numbers, not NAR's pending home sales index.

The details:

Pending sales: down 4% from August, the lowest since spring 2014 (except April 2020)
Metros: down from a year ago in all 50 of the largest
Canceled deals: 14.5% of September contracts
Closed sales: down 1.6% from August, the lowest since the end of 2023
Homes for sale: the most supply since March 2020

Why it matters:

Fewer signed deals now means fewer move-in tickets for sofas, mattresses and dining into Q4. Don't plan holiday volume around new movers.
With this many deals falling apart, treat any order tied to a home closing as tentative. Confirm the closing before you schedule delivery.
Work the customers already in their homes: replacement, upgrades and room refreshes.

Missed Sunday's editorial? Part Two of our freight series, What a Data Center Has to Do With Your Sofa, is here.

Consumer Sentiment

Shoppers say it's a bad time to buy big-ticket items.

The University of Michigan's preliminary October survey, released Oct 9, found consumer sentiment slipped a little, to 46.3. Survey director Joanne Hsu said buying conditions for durables "plummeted" because of high prices and borrowing costs. Durables are big-ticket goods like furniture, mattresses and appliances. Lower-income households and people with smaller stock holdings soured the most. These are early numbers, and the final October read could change.

Why it matters:

Shoppers aren't saying no to furniture. They're saying no at today's prices and borrowing costs. Lead with value, in-stock pieces and simple financing.
Expect more price shopping and slower decisions on big tickets. Make it easy to come back with holds, written quotes and follow-ups.
Budget-minded customers pulled back the hardest. Keep your opening price points in stock and on the floor.

Freight

West Coast container rates eased a little.

Freightos put China to the U.S. West Coast at $8,106 per 40-foot container for the week ending Oct 9, down $228 from the week before. East Coast rates didn't change.

Why it matters:

It's a small break, not a reset. Use it to push back on surcharges for late Q4 and early 2027 bookings.

Bottom line

Fewer home deals and gloomier big-ticket shoppers mean a thinner move-in pipeline into Q4, so sell value to the customers already in their homes and treat closing-tied orders as tentative.

If someone in our industry would get something out of this briefing, please forward it to them.

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Move-In Furniture Tickets Are Drying Up