The Numbers Look Fine. That's the Problem.

Originally published April 25, 2026. This version was rebuilt from Circana and University of Michigan for the FIN archive, and the facts are as of that date.

The March spending numbers looked solid. The April sentiment numbers did not. For a big-ticket category like furniture, the second set mattered more.

The short version

• Retail sales rose in March, helped by calendar effects.
• Consumer sentiment fell in April to its lowest point in years, with declines across every group.
• A small share of shoppers were buying durable goods early to beat expected price increases.

Spending looks healthy

Circana found US retail sales up 3.3% from a year earlier in March, with unit demand up 1%. It credited part of the gain to Easter falling earlier and warned that promotions and short-term boosts could be masking pressure on shoppers.

Sentiment drops

The University of Michigan's sentiment index fell to 49.8 in April from 53.3, comparable to the trough of June 2022. Sentiment fell across political party, income, age and education.

The survey found 11% of consumers buying durable goods early to avoid higher prices, up from 8% at the start of the year. That kind of pull-forward can lift a month or two of sales and then leave a gap.

What it meant for showrooms

When sentiment is this low, big purchases get delayed first. Stores could see steady traffic and still find fewer shoppers ready to commit, so a softer close rate over the next few months would not necessarily be a local problem.

Reading past the headline

Healthy spending totals and gloomy shoppers can exist side by side for a while. Furniture has usually felt the gloom first.

Related on FIN

• Furniture Shoppers Are Holding Back
• Furniture Sales Got Revised Down. Consumers Got Gloomier.

Sources

• Circana, U.S. Retail Spending Trends in March 2026
• University of Michigan, Surveys of Consumers, final April 2026