Consumer Confidence Drops Below the Recession Warning Line as Home Goods Slip

Originally published June 25, 2025. This version was rebuilt from the Conference Board, Kohl's 10-Q, NAR and the Census Bureau's May new home sales report for the FIN archive, and the facts are as of that date.

The last week of June 2025 brought a run of mixed signals. Consumers were gloomier, a big home goods seller kept losing ground, and the housing market showed a little life.

The short version

• The Conference Board's confidence index fell to 93.0 in June.
• Kohl's reported home sales of $370 million, down from $392 million.
• NAR said May existing-home sales rose 0.8% and the median price hit a May record.
• New home sales fell 13.7% in May to an annual rate of 623,000.

Confidence slides

The Conference Board's index fell 5.4 points to 93.0 in June, and the expectations index dropped to 69.0, a level that has historically pointed to recession.

Kohl's home keeps shrinking

Kohl's reported first-quarter home sales of $370 million, compared with $392 million a year earlier, a steeper decline than its total sales. Home has been a weak spot for the chain for several years.

Housing ticks up

NAR said existing-home sales rose 0.8% in May and were down slightly from a year earlier, while the median price reached a record for the month of May at $422,800. More inventory gave buyers more options.

New home sales stumble

The Census Bureau and HUD reported on June 25 that new single-family home sales fell 13.7% in May to an annual rate of 623,000, and were 6.3% below May 2024. April's pace was revised down to 722,000.

Builders had 507,000 new homes for sale at the end of May, 8.1% more than a year earlier and equal to 9.8 months of supply. A growing pile of unsold new homes pointed to builder discounts ahead, but fewer closings in the near term meant fewer new rooms to furnish that summer.

Not freefall, but caution

Furniture was not in freefall, but shoppers were pulling back on home goods at big chains. Resales showed a little life, but new home sales stumbled.

Related on FIN

• Furniture Shoppers Are Holding Back
• Move-In Furniture Tickets Are Drying Up

Sources

• The Conference Board, Consumer confidence, June 2025
• Kohl's Corporation, Form 10-Q for the quarter ended May 3, 2025
• National Association of Realtors, Existing-home sales, May 2025
• U.S. Census Bureau and HUD, New residential sales, May 2025 (June 25, 2025)