Falling Confidence, Rising Home Contracts, and Soft Freight at the End of April

Originally published April 30, 2025. This version was rebuilt from The Conference Board, the National Association of Realtors and XPO's results for the FIN archive, and the facts are as of that date.

The spring High Point Market closed in late April 2025 against an uneasy backdrop. The numbers released that week showed consumers losing confidence, a surprise jump in home contracts and freight still running soft.

The short version

• The Conference Board's Expectations Index fell to 54.4, the lowest since October 2011.
• NAR said pending home sales rose 6.1% in March to 76.5.
• XPO said LTL tonnage per day fell 7.5% in the first quarter.

Confidence falls

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index fell 7.9 points to 86.0 in April. The Expectations Index dropped 12.5 points to 54.4, the lowest level since October 2011 and well below the reading of 80 that usually signals a recession.

The Board said mentions of tariffs reached an all-time high in consumers' write-in answers, and average 12-month inflation expectations reached 7%. For furniture, consumers who expect higher prices and weaker income tend to delay large purchases.

Home contracts jump

NAR said pending home sales rose 6.1% to 76.5 in March, led by the South, though they were 0.6% lower than a year earlier. Contract signings lead closings by one to two months, and closings lead furniture purchases.

One strong month did not change the trend. Year-over-year contracts were down in three of the four regions, and mortgage rates remained the main barrier for buyers.

Freight stays soft

XPO said its North American LTL segment had first-quarter revenue of $1.17 billion, down from $1.22 billion, with shipments per day down 5.8% and tonnage per day down 7.5%. Yield excluding fuel rose 6.9%, and the adjusted operating ratio improved to 85.9%.

Less-than-truckload carriers move many furniture components and finished pieces. Lower tonnage pointed to soft industrial and retail demand even as carriers held pricing.

What the market revealed

The mood at market matched the data. Consumers were anxious, housing showed a flicker of life, and freight was soft. Furniture businesses headed into the summer planning for cautious buyers and higher costs.

Related on FIN

• Furniture Shoppers Are Holding Back
• Move-In Furniture Tickets Are Drying Up

Sources

• The Conference Board, Consumer Confidence Index, April 2025
• National Association of Realtors, Pending home sales, March 2025
• XPO, First quarter 2025 results