Tariffs, Tech & Tipping Points. The New Furniture Frontier

Originally published April 21, 2025. This version was rebuilt from the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, the University of Michigan survey and NRF's Global Port Tracker for the FIN archive, and the facts are as of that date.

The third week of April 2025 felt like a tipping point. Sales had held up through March, but consumers were turning more anxious and import forecasts were falling fast.

The short version

• The CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor showed furniture store sales up 0.01% in March from February.
• The University of Michigan's preliminary April sentiment index fell to 50.8.
• NRF forecast May imports at 1.66 million TEU, down 20.5% from a year earlier.

Furniture stores flat

The CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor showed furniture and home furnishings stores up 0.01% from February on a seasonally adjusted basis and up 1.81% from March 2024 unadjusted. Total sales excluding autos and gas were up 0.6% for the month and 4.75% from a year earlier.

NRF's chief executive said a major factor in recent weakness appears to be driven by the uncertainty caused by tariffs. NRF also said part of the March gain came from stocking up ahead of tariffs, and that many consumers were moving money into savings.

Confidence breaks

The University of Michigan's preliminary April sentiment index fell to 50.8 from 57.0, and year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 6.7%, the highest since 1981. Interviews closed on April 8, before the April 9 tariff pause.

When buyers expect prices to rise but feel worse about their finances, big-ticket purchases like furniture get postponed. That is the tipping point retailers were watching for.

Imports fall off

NRF's Global Port Tracker projected April imports at 2.08 million TEU, up 3.1%, because much of that cargo shipped before the new tariffs. May was forecast at 1.66 million TEU, down 20.5% from a year earlier.

For furniture retailers, a sharp drop in imports meant they would be selling from inventory brought in early in the year. Restocking would come at higher landed costs.

The new frontier

The spring of 2025 marked a shift from planning for tariffs to living with them. Flat furniture store sales, record-high inflation worries and falling imports all pointed to a slower and more expensive summer.

Related on FIN

• Furniture Shoppers Are Holding Back
• Follow the Tariff Dollars

Sources

• National Retail Federation, CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, March 2025
• University of Michigan, Surveys of Consumers, preliminary April 2025
• National Retail Federation, Global Port Tracker (Apr. 9, 2025)