Retail's Hard Truth. Value Is King

Originally published July 23, 2025. This version was rebuilt from Census construction data, NAR's June existing-home sales report and NRF's back-to-school survey for the FIN archive, and the facts are as of that date.

Mid-summer 2025 data pointed to a shopper who still spent but wanted to feel smart about it. The housing pipeline behind furniture demand looked thinner than some reports suggested.

The short version

• Census put June housing completions at an annual rate of 1,314,000, well below a year earlier.
• NAR said existing-home sales fell 2.7% in June while the median price hit a record $435,300.
• NRF found 67% of back-to-school shoppers had started by early July.

Fewer homes finished

The Census Bureau's June report showed housing completions at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,314,000, down 14.7% from May and 24.1% from a year earlier. Building permits and starts were also running below the pace of a year earlier.

Completions turn into move-ins and furniture purchases. A drop this size meant fewer new households needing to furnish a home in the months ahead.

Resales slip as prices hit a record

NAR reported on July 23 that existing-home sales fell 2.7% in June to an annual rate of 3.93 million, unchanged from a year earlier. The median price rose 2% to $435,300, a record for June and the 24th straight month of annual gains.

Inventory was 1.53 million homes, up 15.9% from June 2024, or 4.7 months of supply. First-time buyers made up 30% of sales, and the 30-year mortgage rate averaged 6.75%. More listings at record prices meant buyers who did move were stretching their budgets, leaving less room for new furniture.

Shoppers start early and hunt deals

NRF's back-to-school survey found 67% of families had already started shopping by early July, up from 55% a year earlier, as worries about tariff-driven prices pulled purchases forward. Families planned to spend a little less per student than in 2024.

Shoppers buying early to beat price increases, and looking for deals when they do, is a pattern furniture retailers could plan promotions around.

Value wins

With fewer new homes to furnish, resales stuck below 4 million and shoppers watching prices, value became the main selling point. Retailers who could show clear value and timely promotions were best positioned.

Related on FIN

• Move-In Furniture Tickets Are Drying Up
• Furniture Shoppers Are Holding Back

Sources

• U.S. Census Bureau, New residential construction, June 2025
• National Association of Realtors, Existing-home sales report shows 2.7% decrease in June (July 23, 2025)
• National Retail Federation, Back-to-school survey, July 2025