Home Sales, Confidence & Tariff Talks

Originally published February 28, 2025. This version was rebuilt from the National Association of Realtors, the Census Bureau's new residential sales report and The Conference Board for the FIN archive, and the facts are as of that date.

The end of February 2025 brought a run of weak housing and confidence numbers. Fewer homes changing hands means fewer homes to furnish later in the year.

The short version

• NAR said pending home sales fell 4.6% to 70.6, an all-time low.
• Census said January new home sales fell 10.5% to 657,000 at an annual rate.
• The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index fell 7.0 points to 98.3.

Fewer homes sold

NAR's Pending Home Sales Index fell 4.6% to 70.6 in January, an all-time low, and was 5.2% lower than a year earlier. Contract signings fell from a year earlier in all four regions, with the South down the most.

Census and HUD said sales of new single-family houses fell to 657,000, 10.5% below December and 1.1% below January 2024. The median new home price was $446,300.

Pending sales lead closings by one to two months, so the January drop pointed to fewer move-ins, and fewer furniture purchases tied to them, in the spring.

Confidence drops

The Conference Board said its index fell 7.0 points in February to 98.3. The Expectations Index dropped 9.3 points to 72.9, below the recession signal of 80 for the first time since June 2024.

Average 12-month inflation expectations rose from 5.2% to 6%, which the Board linked partly to egg prices and the expected impact of tariffs. It also noted a sharp increase in mentions of trade and tariffs.

Tariff talks

By late February the 10% tariff on Chinese goods was in place, Canada and Mexico tariffs were paused until March 4, and a reciprocal tariff plan was under study. Retailers were planning spring assortments without knowing their landed costs.

Update. The Canada and Mexico tariffs took effect March 4, the China tariff rose to 20%, and the Supreme Court later ruled that IEEPA does not authorize these tariffs.

Where the industry goes from here

Record-low contract signings and falling confidence pointed to a slow spring for furniture. Tariff uncertainty made it harder to plan around the slowdown.

Related on FIN

• Move-In Furniture Tickets Are Drying Up
• Furniture Shoppers Are Holding Back

Sources

• National Association of Realtors, Pending home sales, January 2025
• U.S. Census Bureau and HUD, New residential sales, January 2025
• The Conference Board, Consumer Confidence Index, February 2025
• The White House, Executive Order 14197 on Canada (Feb. 3, 2025)
• The White House, Reciprocal Trade and Tariffs memorandum (Feb. 13, 2025)
• The White House, Further amendment to duties addressing the synthetic opioid supply chain in China (Mar. 3, 2025)
• Supreme Court of the United States, Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump, opinion (Feb. 20, 2026)
• The White House, Executive Order 14195 on China (Feb. 1, 2025)