AI, Tariffs, and Uncertain Shoppers. What's Really Driving Furniture Sales?

Originally published March 17, 2025. This version was rebuilt from the Census Bureau's advance retail sales report, the University of Michigan survey and White House orders for the FIN archive, and the facts are as of that date.

Mid-March 2025 data showed furniture stores holding steady while shoppers grew much more worried. Tariffs were the main reason for the gap between what people bought and how they felt.

The short version

• Census said furniture store sales were flat in February and up 5.5% from a year earlier.
• The University of Michigan's preliminary March sentiment index fell to 57.9.
• The China fentanyl tariff rose to 20% on March 4.

Sales hold steady

The Census Bureau's advance report showed furniture and home furnishings store sales unchanged in February from January and up 5.5% from February 2024. Total retail and food services sales were $722.7 billion, up 0.2% for the month and 3.1% from a year earlier.

Flat sales after a weak January suggested demand was stable rather than strong. The yearly gain was against a soft 2024, when high mortgage rates held back move-in purchases.

Shoppers worry

The University of Michigan's preliminary March sentiment index fell to 57.9 from 64.7 in February. Year-ahead inflation expectations rose from 4.3% to 4.9%, the highest since November 2022.

The survey said 48% of consumers spontaneously mentioned tariffs in interviews, up from about 40% in February. For furniture, worried shoppers are more likely to wait, compare and ask for financing on large purchases.

Tariffs drive the mood

A March 3 order raised the China fentanyl tariff from 10% to 20%, and the White House proceeded with tariffs on Canada and Mexico the same week. Retailers expected cost increases to show up in the spring.

Update. The Supreme Court later ruled that IEEPA does not authorize these tariffs.

What drives sales

In early 2025 furniture sales were driven less by new technology than by prices and confidence. Steady February sales and falling sentiment set up a tense spring for retailers deciding how to price imported goods.

Related on FIN

• Furniture Shoppers Are Holding Back
• Furniture Store Sales Fell 2.7%. Every Other Category Grew.

Sources

• U.S. Census Bureau, Advance monthly retail sales, February 2025
• University of Michigan, Surveys of Consumers, preliminary March 2025
• The White House, Further amendment to duties addressing the synthetic opioid supply chain in China (Mar. 3, 2025)
• The White House, Fact sheet on tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico (Mar. 3, 2025)
• Supreme Court of the United States, Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump, opinion (Feb. 20, 2026)