The Great Furniture Squeeze. Tariffs, Housing Slump, and What's Next

Originally published August 8, 2025. This version was rebuilt from NRF, White House, Census and company SEC filings for the FIN archive, and the facts are as of that date.

New tariff rates took effect on August 7, 2025, and the squeeze on furniture came from both directions. Import volumes were expected to fall, and housing, the usual engine of furniture demand, stayed slow.

The short version

• NRF projected 2025 imports at 24.1 million TEU, down 5.6%.
• An executive order added a 40% duty on Brazilian goods, bringing the total to 50%.
• Census put June new home sales at an annual rate of 627,000.
• Arhaus grew second-quarter revenue 15.7%, and Somnigroup's sales rose 52.5% with Mattress Firm.

Imports set to fall

NRF's Global Port Tracker forecast 24.1 million TEU of imports for 2025, down 5.6% from 2024, after a first half that ran ahead of last year as retailers pulled orders forward. With higher rates in effect, the second half was expected to drop off.

Brazil hit with 50%

Executive Order 14323 added a 40% duty on products of Brazil, which the White House said brought the total to 50%. Brazil is a major source of leather and hides for upholstered furniture, so suppliers began looking at processing in other countries.

Update. The Supreme Court ruled on February 20, 2026 that IEEPA does not authorize these tariffs.

Housing still weak

Census reported June new home sales at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 627,000, with a median price of $401,800. Sales were down from a year earlier and builders were sitting on a large supply of homes for sale.

Earnings split

Arhaus reported second-quarter revenue up 15.7% to $358 million, a strong showing at the high end.

Somnigroup, the former Tempur Sealy, which now owns Mattress Firm, reported net sales of $1.88 billion, up 52.5%, largely from adding Mattress Firm.

Squeezed from both sides

Fewer imports and higher duties meant tighter supply and higher costs, while weak housing kept demand in check. Companies with strong brands or scale were the ones still growing.

Related on FIN

• Follow the Tariff Dollars
• New Home Sales Jumped in August. Mortgage Rates Crossed 7%.

Sources

• National Retail Federation, Global Port Tracker, August 2025
• The White House, Addressing threats to the United States by the Government of Brazil (July 30, 2025)
• The White House, Fact sheet on Brazil tariffs
• Supreme Court of the United States, Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump, opinion (Feb. 20, 2026)
• U.S. Census Bureau, New residential sales, June 2025
• Arhaus, Inc., Second quarter 2025 results (SEC filing)
• Somnigroup International, Second quarter 2025 results