Industry Meltdown. Why Your Furniture Prices Are About to Skyrocket

Originally published July 9, 2025. This version was rebuilt from the White House fact sheet, the Conference Board, NRF and Census for the FIN archive, and the facts are as of that date.

Early July 2025 delivered a new set of tariff letters and a weaker read on consumer expectations. The surprise was that furniture store sales were still holding up.

The short version

• Letters set rates from 25% to 40% for 14 countries starting August 1.
• The Conference Board's expectations index fell to 69.0 in June.
• NRF expected July imports at 2.36 million TEU, then a drop.
• Census showed May furniture store sales up 8.8% from a year earlier.

The letters go out

The White House said letters sent on July 7 set new rates effective August 1, including 25% for Japan, Korea and Malaysia, 30% for South Africa and 40% for Laos and Myanmar.

Update. A July 31 order set the final rates, and the Supreme Court later ruled that IEEPA does not authorize these tariffs.

Expectations sink

The Conference Board's confidence index fell 5.4 points to 93.0 in June, and its expectations index fell to 69.0, well below the level of 80 that has historically signaled a recession.

The rush before the deadline

NRF's Global Port Tracker said May imports fell to 1.95 million TEU, then forecast a July rebound to 2.36 million as retailers brought goods in ahead of higher rates, followed by year-over-year declines of 10.4% in August and 19.9% in September.

Sales still growing

The Census Bureau's advance estimate showed May sales at furniture and home furnishings stores up 1.2% from April and 8.8% from a year earlier. Shoppers were still buying, possibly to get ahead of price increases.

Change is coming

Sales were strong for now, partly on buying ahead. With imports set to drop and prices set to rise, the second half looked harder than the first.

Related on FIN

• Furniture Shoppers Are Holding Back
• Follow the Tariff Dollars

Sources

• The White House, Fact sheet on new tariff rates (July 7, 2025)
• The White House, Further modifying the reciprocal tariff rates (July 31, 2025)
• Supreme Court of the United States, Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump, opinion (Feb. 20, 2026)
• The Conference Board, Consumer confidence, June 2025
• National Retail Federation, Global Port Tracker, July 2025
• U.S. Census Bureau, Advance monthly retail sales, May 2025