Thursday, October 29, 2026
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Furniture Showrooms Are Losing Home Buyers. Pending Home Sales Fell 15.9%.

Home buying hit a record low going into the holidays. Plus tariff refunds stuck on missing bank details and a possible port strike in Southern California.

FIN Desk··8 min read
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Furniture Showrooms Are Losing Home Buyers. Pending Home Sales Fell 15.9%.

Home buying hit a record low going into the holidays. Plus tariff refunds stuck on missing bank details and a possible port strike in Southern California.

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Fewer people are signing contracts on homes than at any point in Redfin's records, and that's the customer who furnishes a whole house. In the four weeks ending Oct 25, pending home sales fell 15.9% from a year earlier, and they were down in every big metro Redfin tracks for a third straight week. It comes right as stores head into the holiday selling season.

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The short version

  • Housing: Home-buying demand hit a record low. Fewer move-in shoppers are lined up for the holiday season.

  • Tariff refunds: Customs says about $990 million in processed refunds is stuck because importers never gave it bank details.

  • On our radar: Security workers at LA and Long Beach terminals reportedly authorized a strike that could start Nov 1. Nothing is confirmed yet.

  • Also: Flexsteel on ocean freight, the Ethan Allen vote, mattress duties, diesel and Southeast factories.

Housing: Home buying just hit a record low

Redfin, the real estate brokerage, said Oct 29 that pending sales, meaning homes that went under contract, dropped to the lowest level in its weekly data, which goes back to 2021. Sales were down from a year earlier in every one of the largest metros it tracks. Redfin's weekly figures can be revised.

Prices are starting to give a little. Redfin's median sale price slipped just below last year's level for the second straight week, after three years of gains. Would-be sellers are pulling back too, and new listings are at their lowest since January. Redfin says buyers now have more negotiating power than they've had in over a decade.

Borrowing costs aren't helping. Freddie Mac's weekly survey on Oct 29 had the average 30-year mortgage rate still above 7%, down a little from the week before but more than a point higher than a year ago. The Mortgage Bankers Association said Oct 28 that purchase applications were well behind last year's pace, and its deputy chief economist said many buyers have put their plans on hold. The Federal Reserve left its rate unchanged on Oct 28, and the two officials who voted against the decision wanted a hike, not a cut.

Other data points the same way, with less certainty. The Census Bureau said September new-home sales ran a bit below last year, though it says that change isn't statistically significant. In the Conference Board's October survey, consumers said they plan to spend less on durable goods over the next six months. That survey doesn't break out furniture.

For furniture stores this is the move-in customer, the one who buys a sofa, a bedroom and a dining room within a few months of closing. With contracts at a record low in late October, fewer of those closings are lined up for November and December, and more holiday traffic will have to come from people updating the home they already own.

Tariff refunds: About $990 million is waiting on bank details

In a sworn report filed Oct 26 in the class case over tariffs collected under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) said about $990 million in refunds it has already processed hasn't gone to the Treasury for payment. The reason is that the importers never gave CBP the bank account details it needs to pay them. Those figures are as of Oct 23.

Most of the money is moving. In an order dated Oct 29, Judge Richard Eaton of the U.S. Court of International Trade wrote that refunds sent to the Treasury so far add up to more than four-fifths of all IEEPA tariffs collected.

CBP pays these refunds only by direct deposit, to the bank account an importer has on file in CBP's online portal, known as ACE. Its refund page says it holds a refund until that account information is added, and that an ACE report called ACH Rejected Refunds lists refunds turned away because no account was on file. Importers that rely on a customs broker can get the same status through the broker, CBP says. Valid refunds generally go out within two to three months after a refund claim is accepted.

The report also covers what CBP calls Phase 3 of its refund system, which went live Oct 6. It's narrow. It covers entries whose duties were already final, for importers who sued and for whom the court has ordered Customs to recalculate those entries. The judge's order says those plaintiffs don't have to withdraw a pending protest first, a point CBP's own FAQ doesn't spell out yet. It isn't a new refund round for everyone.

The government's proposed case schedule is due Nov 5. CBP's next progress report is due Nov 10, and the judge set a closed settlement conference for Nov 12.

On our radar: A possible strike at LA and Long Beach terminals

We're hearing about a labor dispute that could affect freight at the country's busiest port complex. FreightWaves and the Long Beach Post reported Oct 28 that about 250 security watchmen at terminals in Los Angeles and Long Beach, members of International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) Local 26, have authorized a strike. It could start as soon as 5 p.m. Pacific (7 p.m. Central) on Sunday, Nov 1, when their latest contract extension runs out.

The watchmen are a small slice of the port workforce, but they handle security inside several terminals, and the reports say those terminals move most of Long Beach's cargo. According to the reports, the employers' group expects other dockworkers to refuse to cross a picket line. If that happened, work at those terminals could stall just as holiday freight is moving.

Their contract ran out in July 2025, and talks have gone on for more than a year with federal mediators involved, the reports say. The employers' group, the Pacific Maritime Association, is quoted saying it wants a deal, and the Port of Long Beach says it's watching the talks and hopes for an agreement. This dispute is separate from the main West Coast dockworker contract, which runs through 2028.

We haven't found a statement posted by the union, the employers' group or either port on their own sites, and the union hadn't commented to reporters. For now this is early reporting, not a confirmed event, and we'll keep watching it for retailers and manufacturers with freight coming through Southern California.

Quick hits

  • Flexsteel: In its Oct 26 results release, Flexsteel's CEO said ocean shipping rates have “nearly doubled over the last six months,” while fuel and material costs keep squeezing margins. He didn't name a route. Orders still rose from a year earlier, and the company's backlog grew. Vendors with imported product are likely to keep pointing to freight in price talks.

  • Ethan Allen: Filings from both sides now confirm that proxy adviser ISS backs three of the company's board nominees and two from activist investor DGB, which holds about 5% of the stock, rather than a full board change. ISS recommends replacing Chairman and CEO Farooq Kathwari and lead independent director David Sable on the board. DGB said Oct 28 that its nominees, if elected, would recommend one of them, former Neiman Marcus executive Stefanie Tsen Ward, as interim CEO. The company says it will name a permanent CEO by June 30, 2027. Shareholders vote Nov 4.

  • Mattresses: Following the Oct 22 trade commission decision to keep mattress duties in place, Commerce rescinded this year's reviews of the duty orders on mattresses from Malaysia, Türkiye, Vietnam and Thailand, along with the subsidy order on China, after every review request was withdrawn. For those periods, the deposits importers paid at entry become the final duties. Cambodia and Serbia aren't part of this notice.

  • Freight costs: The Energy Information Administration's weekly diesel price rose again in its Oct 26 reading and is far above a year ago. On the ocean side, Drewry's World Container Index showed the Shanghai to Los Angeles rate falling in its Oct 29 reading, and Drewry expects transpacific rates to slip again in early November.

  • Southeast factories: The Richmond Fed's October manufacturing survey showed order backlogs shrinking faster at factories across its district, which includes the Carolinas and Virginia. New orders slipped too, while the prices factories charge rose faster. The survey covers all manufacturing, not just furniture.

  • Port fees: USTR's plan to keep fees on China-linked ships suspended into January is still only a proposal. Comments close Oct 30.

Dates to watch

  • Oct 30: Comments due on USTR's port-fee proposal

  • Nov 1: LA and Long Beach watchmen's contract extension expires, 5 p.m. Pacific

  • Nov 3: Next EIA weekly diesel price report

  • Nov 4: Ethan Allen annual meeting and board vote

  • Nov 5: Proposed schedule due in the IEEPA refund class case

  • Nov 9: Current port-fee suspension ends unless USTR finalizes its proposal

  • Nov 10: CBP's next refund progress report due

  • Nov 12: Closed settlement conference in the IEEPA refund case

Bottom line

Home buying is at a record low going into the holidays, so the move-in customer will be scarce on furniture floors. On costs, Customs is holding refund money for importers without bank details on file, freight signals are mixed, and the watchmen's Nov 1 deadline at LA and Long Beach is the one to keep an eye on.

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