New Tariff Threats and a Factory Slowdown Heading into 2025

Originally published December 2, 2024. This version was rebuilt from President-elect Trump's November 25 statements and the ISM manufacturing report for the FIN archive, and the facts are as of that date.

The first business day of December 2024 opened with tariff threats hanging over every importer and a factory sector that had not yet recovered.

The short version

• The President-elect said he would charge Mexico and Canada a 25% Tariff on ALL products.
• He also promised an additional 10% Tariff on Chinese goods.
• ISM listed Furniture & Related Products among industries contracting in November.

Tariff threats on the horizon

On November 25 the President-elect posted that on January 20 he would sign orders to charge Mexico and Canada a 25% Tariff on ALL products coming into the United States, tied to drugs and border crossings.

In a separate post he said the U.S. would charge China an additional 10% Tariff, above any additional Tariffs, on all of its products until drug flows stopped.

Update. The China tariff took effect in February 2025 under Executive Order 14195, and the Supreme Court later ruled that IEEPA does not authorize such tariffs.

What it means for importers

All three countries are part of furniture supply chains, from components and fabrics to finished goods. Stacked tariffs on all of them would raise landed costs across most categories.

Importers had about seven weeks before the inauguration to decide whether to pull orders forward, shift sourcing or prepare price increases.

Factories still contracting

The ISM manufacturing index was 48.4% in November, and the New Orders Index returned to expansion at 50.4% after seven months of contraction.

Furniture did not share in the improvement. ISM listed Furniture & Related Products among the 11 industries reporting contraction, and among those with lower new orders.

Embracing change

Tariff threats and soft factory orders set the tone for the holiday season. Furniture businesses went into 2025 planning for higher import costs before the details were known.

Related on FIN

• Follow the Tariff Dollars
• Furniture Orders Rose 9%. Factories Still Aren't Hiring for It.

Sources

• The American Presidency Project, President-elect statement threatening 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico (Nov. 25, 2024)
• The American Presidency Project, President-elect statement threatening 10% tariffs on China (Nov. 25, 2024)
• Institute for Supply Management, Manufacturing PMI, November 2024
• The White House, Executive Order 14195 on China (Feb. 1, 2025)
• Supreme Court of the United States, Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump, opinion (Feb. 20, 2026)